As the nation prays for the recovery of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in a far away Saudi Arabia hospital, the ongoing debate about whether or not he should temporarily or permanently transfer power to his Vice President raises two related questions: (1) What did former President Olusegun Obasanjo (OBJ) know about Yar’Adua’s health before the latter’s presidential candidacy in 2007 and when did OBJ know it and (2) how can the election of a sick and ill-prepared presidential candidate be prevented in the future?
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There is no doubt that OBJ has served this country in various frontline capacities. His gallantry in the army earned him the honour of accepting the surrender of Biafran forces, thus ending the civil war on January 15, 1970. It is, however, a different matter as to how his 11-year service as Nigeria ‘s Head of State (1976-79) and President (1999-2007) will go down in history. While historians will disagree on the quality of his service and leadership style, there can be no disagreement on the manipulation of the processes leading to the controversial elections of his successors.
OBJ is notorious for supporting, or foisting on the nation, candidates who were not particularly interested in the presidency or prepared for the office. Take the case of his first handover in 1979 to Alhaji Usman Shehu Aliyu Shagari of the defunct National Party of Nigeria. Other contenders for the presidency included Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Dr Nnamdi Azikwe, Alhaji Aminu Kano, and Alhaji Waziri Ibrahim, indisputably frontline politicians of towering qualifications and international reputation. OBJ did not hide his support for Shagari, a man whose publicly stated political ambition was never beyond being a Senator. And, by the most memorable mathematical equation in the nation’s history (thanks to eminent lawyer Richard Akinjide), Shagari was declared winner of a close and controversial election. OBJ endorsed his election with the famous remark that the best horses don’t always win the race.
Shagari’s eventual lacklustre performance betrayed his reluctance and lack of preparedness for office. The unfortunate administration he ran and the massively rigged election that returned him to office in 1983 precipitated a military take-over in December of that year. It would take another sixteen years before democracy returned. In the course of the struggle, some eminent Nigerians died in captivity or were forced into exile.
It was speculated then that Obasanjo was obligated to the Northern oligarchy because he, a Southerner, replaced a Northerner who was killed in a coup. History would repeat itself in 2007. Obasanjo served two terms as a Southern beneficiary of a power sharing arrangement that favoured the rotation of the presidency between the North and the South. The ruling class in the North rallied to his support in 1999 and 2003, expecting him to pay them back by repeating what he did in 1979. He went an extra mile in fulfilling this obligation.
Not only was the 2007 presidential primary manipulated, the election was also rigged in favour of Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, a Northern candidate. As was widely speculated at that time, the election itself was for the PDP, OBJ’s party, to lose, given its control of the centre, the majority of states, security agents, and the electoral machinery. So it would not have mattered much who the candidate was. Nigerians were largely resigned to that fate. What they did not expect was the candidate foisted on them and the manner in which it happened. Because Yar’Adua was unknown and unprepared, OBJ took it upon himself to traverse the length and breadth of the country, using the presidential bully pulpit to force his candidate on the people. He repeatedly touted Yar’Adua’s readiness to carry out his reforms but without mentioning his qualifications or preparation for the job.
Two years later, Nigeria lays prostrate as her “elected” President lies ill in a Saudi hospital. But even before Yar’Adua’s recent hospitalization, Nigeria had slipped further on all international indices. Increased corruption in political and banking institutions, escalation of energy insecurity, rampant kidnapping, major fraud scandals, a failed National Assembly, and abysmal performance on the world stage had turned Nigeria into a laughing stock. The occasional spark of good performance by Yar’Adua, such as the Niger Delta amnesty programme, has led observers to remark that perhaps Yar’Adua would have done better were he fully prepared for the presidency and in good health. That’s why it is quite appropriate, even necessary, at this time to ask OBJ about what he knew and when he knew it concerning Yar’Adua’s health and preparedness for office. It is one thing for a president to be fully prepared for the job and to fall ill in office. When this happens, the electorate usually understands and sympathises, as in the case of William Henry Harrison, the ninth President of the United States , who fell ill on his inauguration day and died shortly thereafter. It is, however, a different matter for someone to seek the presidency unprepared and from a sick bed. As events have unfolded since Yar’Adua emerged on the national scene in late 2006, it has become clear that he literally campaigned from his sick bed and that his so-called Seven-Point Agenda was hurriedly crafted as he prepared for inauguration.
As Yar Adu’a lays ill in a foreign hospital for the umpteenth time in the spate of two years, Nigerians are not only right to ask how he has fared since he got into office or wonder if he should resign, it is also appropriate to ask how and why he got into office in the first place. Mallam Nasir El-Rufai’s widely circulated facebook essay is instructive on this last question. The former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory appraised Yar’Adua as a person, candidate, and president as well as the succession drama that brought him into power. According to El-Rufai, it was OBJ who selected Yar’Adua to succeed him. It was OBJ who sent third parties to Yar’Adua to pick up the nomination papers. It was OBJ who provided the helicopter that brought Yar’Adua to Abuja for a first meeting. Moreover, according to El-Rufai, it was James Ibori, an OBJ protŽgŽ, who paid the application fee of N5m, even before Yar’Adua showed up for the meeting. El-Rufai did not deny his culpability as an accomplice in the succession maneuvers.
One interesting aspect of El-Rufai’s revelations for present purposes is his reference to Yar’Adua’s medical history. In El-Rufai’s words, “In 2001, the second year of his first term as Governor, Umaru’s health began to deteriorate. His mentor, General Aliyu Mohammed arranged for him to go to Germany for a comprehensive medical check-up. In Germany , he was diagnosed with renal failure and he was prescribed medication to supplement regular dialysis. In all he spent nearly six months in Germany “. What is not clear in El-Rufai’s essay is when he knew about Umaru Yar’Adua’s medical history and whether it was ever discussed in the course of Yar’Adua’s selection and campaign.
It will be recalled that, during the campaign for the presidency, Yar’Adua went abroad twice for medical attention, in December 2006 and March 2007, the latter at the peak of the campaign season. If OBJ knew that Yar’Adua was that seriously ill, he must be experiencing a pang of conscience now, which he should share with the nation. If, on the other hand, Yar’Adua hid his ailment from OBJ, as he surely hid it from the electorate, then he should one day explain to the nation why he sought the office he could barely hold.
The nation should be weary of putting their faith in both men if they cannot come clean on this issue. This is why their role in the succession drama now unfolding before our eyes is objectionable. As widely reported in newspapers, OBJ’s calculation is that the new Vice President would be well positioned to vie for the presidency and complete the second leg of the 8-year power rotation to the North. The question now is, will Nigerians watch helplessly again as they are about to be “bitten” the third time by the same person?
There are major lessons here for the Nigerian electorate. First, they should be more inquisitive about the health, qualifications, and preparedness of candidates for high office, especially the presidency. Second, they should prevent future manipulation of their franchise by political godfathers. Third, they should reject manipulated presidential primaries. Nigeria has never had a deserving President because citizens were always prevented from making an informed choice. As the nation turns 50 before the next presidential election, it is time for sober reflection. It is time to elect a president that Nigeria truly deserves, given the wealth of human and material resources at her disposal.
*Professor Niyi Akinnaso teaches Anthropology and Linguistics at Temple University, United States; Dr. Fakiyesi practises psychiatric medicine in the United States
